Good morning you beautiful souls, it’s draft weekend. At least, it is for me. When do you all draft?

Please feel free to reply with comments, advice requests, section suggestions - anything! I’ll do my best to help you out where I can.

Let’s talk some fantasy football!

In this week’s newsletter:
- Jonathan Taylor is given permission to seek trade
- Players I am avoiding in drafts at ADP
- How I’m preparing for my home league draft
- Preseason Week 2 standouts

📰 Jonathan Taylor given permission to seek trade by Colts

Breaking earlier this week, Jonathan Taylor was given permission by the Colts to seek a trade after requesting a trade a few weeks ago.

I’m oddly not sold that Taylor will actually be traded, I could picture the first-round pick price tag that the Colts have placed on him being too pricey for teams to bite on. But I could be wrong!

A few teams I see throwing some offers on the table:

Miami Dolphins: After missing out on the Dalvin Cook signing, the Dolphins appear to already show interest in trading for Taylor. Taylor's inclusion would prevent opposing defenses from overcommitting to the passing game, maintaining a balanced threat that could bolster the Dolphins' overall offensive prowess.

Buffalo Bills: The Bills, while constrained by cap space, could use a dynamic early-down bruiser to balance their offense. With Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs leading the charge, Taylor's presence would add a much-needed dimension to the Bills' Super Bowl aspirations.

Minnesota Vikings: With Dalvin Cook's departure, Alexander Mattison is set to lead the Vikings' backfield. Taylor's potential arrival would alleviate concerns about unproven depth behind Mattison, maintaining their competitive edge after a pretty solid 2022 season.

Overall, I’m not shying away from drafting Jonathan Taylor. If a team trades for him, odds are they are going to use him like a workhorse back. I find it hard to imagine a team with a solid starting RB already buying in at this price.

His current ADP of RB8 at the back half of the second round still feels safe for any volume I expect him to see.

🙅 Players I am Avoiding at ADP

This isn’t a list of players that I’m low on in 2023, it’s a list of players that I’m not drafting at their current ADP. Whether they’re being drafted too high or I like the players surrounding them, I just happen to be skipping these few players in drafts.

🐦 Bijan Robinson (ADP: Pick 9)
I’m prepared for any disagreement here, but I’m not 100% sold on committing my first round pick on a rookie. Yet. I truly hope and expect to be proven wrong, but I prefer the other RBs and WRs being drafted in this early range.

🏈 Patrick Mahomes (ADP: Pick 15)
Let me start this by mentioning that Patrick Mahomes is my QB1 for the season, but his ADP at the start of round 2 is too high for my liking. If I could get him in the late second, I’m all in, but early round 2 when I could be getting guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nick Chubb or AJ Brown. I’d MUCH rather draft one of those guys in round 2 and snag a QB like Lamar Jackson or even Joe Burrow a few rounds later.

✈️ Breece Hall (ADP: Early 4th Round)
Breece Hall, to me, is the perfect example of someone you trade for after the first few weeks. I’m not out on Hall for the entirety of the season, just the beginning portion of the year and the draft price is way too pricey for me. I’ll comfortably trade for him when the team that rosters Hall is disappointed at Dalvin Cook’s involvement and enjoy the second half of the year with a fully healthy Breece Hall.

🦅 D’Andre Swift (ADP: Mid 6th Round)
This could be the entire Philadelphia backfield tbh, but Swift is currently the earliest drafted RB from this team. With the recent hype of Kenneth Gainwell, positive reports on Rashaad Penny and just knowing the true RB1 on this team is Jalen Hurts - I find it very difficult to find consistent fantasy production from any of the Philadelphia RBs. Tread carefully.

Other things to check out:
- Abusing Draft Rankings is updated for the weekend
- My Draft Rankings have been updated
- Mock draft on Rival Fantasy and use code FIRSTSEED at signup

🏠 How I’m Preparing for My Home League Fantasy Draft

So my home league draft is this weekend. The 12 of us went to high school together where the league started and it’s been thriving ever since. Every year we rent out a house for a “Draft Weekend” and make it a whole thing. I love it.

But how am I preparing for it? What am I bringing to this live draft so I feel ready to go? What drinks am I having?

Allow me to break my strategy down.

🏈 Mock Drafting and Knowing ADP
Know your league rules, know the ADP of the draft platform you are using, and know that no matter how many times you mock it will never go perfectly to plan.

Our league is hosted on Sleeper so I KNOW my leaguemates are mock drafting on Sleeper as well. Mock drafting helps get an idea of which players will be drafted when, but it’s all up in the air once that draft starts.

It’s still nice to know when certain players are ranked on the draft platform because then everyone else is looking at those same ranks when mocking. I’m picturing a whole lot of “these QBs go in this range” or “these RBs are drafted in this area.”

🏈 Printing Out Draft Rankings
Or having a spreadsheet on a tablet or laptop in front of me. This year I’m thinking of ditching the laptop and printing out a cheat sheet to bring it back to basics.

My go-to currently in terms of tiers are PeakedInHighSkool’s Draft Tiers and then I plan on pairing that up with a print-out of both my draft rankings and some collection of other Experts from FantasyPros.

🏈 What I’ll be Drinking
I’ve deemed this summer my “Summer of Seltzies.” So I’ll be picking up a pack of some tasty looking Hard Seltzers and enjoying those throughout. I’m not planning on getting slammed, I can’t impact this draft at all, but I do plan on feeling a good buzz. It’s the best weekend of the year!

How are you preparing for your draft? Let me know!

📊 Preseason Week 2 Takeaways

Week 2 of the NFL preseason came and went last week. Let’s dive in to some quick takeaways I had from some fantasy-relevant players!

📈 Javonte Williams - RB, Denver Broncos
Against all odds, Javonte Williams made a strong return in a preseason game. Despite a 50/50 split with Perine, it was Williams' first game back. Notably, he received 5 targets on 8 routes run, tallying 8 opportunities on just 13 snaps alongside the starters.

📈 Skyy Moore - WR, KC Chiefs
Skyy Moore mirrored Travis Kelce's route count when playing alongside the Chiefs' starters. Positioned right behind MVS, he even secured playing time in 2 WR sets, signaling significant potential even with Kadarius Toney's return.

📈 Darren Waller - TE, NY Giants
Darren Waller's impressive 80% route participation and 40% targets per route run with the starters hold immense promise. Assuming he remains injury-free, Waller has the potential to outperform his current TE7 ADP on Sleeper.

📈 Dameon Pierce - RB, HOU Texans
Dameon Pierce's comprehensive on-field presence, accounting for 100% of snaps with the starters, stands out. Considering his shift from an early-down role last year and the comparison to Devin Singletary's recent usage, Pierce might secure a new passing down role by Week 1. This adds more weight to investing in Pierce at his RB18 price.

📈 James Cook - RB, BUF Bills
With an 88% snap participation and a 67% route rate during Josh Allen's dropbacks, James Cook emerges as an exceptional value in current fantasy football drafts. Count me in on James Cook this year.